Provident's Dubai Property Market Report for H1 2024

The first half of 2024 has been a landmark period for Dubai's real estate market, showcasing remarkable growth across all sectors. As the city continues to attract global investors and new residents, the demand for residential and commercial properties remains strong. This report analyses the key trends, statistics, and insights that have shaped the Dubai real estate landscape over the past six months. Let's delve into the Dubai Real Estate Market Report for H1 2024 and explore the factors influencing Dubai property sales in 2024.

Key Figures and Results of H1 2024

Dubai's real estate market has shown significant growth, with record sales transactions. The end-user market has seen an increase in villa and townhouse prices, while luxury properties continue to attract high-net-worth individuals and investors. Substantial returns on investment are seen in both off-plan and ready properties. Here are the key highlights from Dubai's real estate market in H1 2024:

• Dubai's population increased by 2.3% from Q1 2024 to mid-July 2024.
• 41,641 off-plan units were registered for initial sale directly from the developer.
• Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) and Arjan are the hot spots for future developments.
• 24,697 ready property registrations were recorded in Dubai.
• 92,730 new tenancy contracts registered, and 149,760 contracts renewed.
• Office transactions in H1 2024 increased by 25% from the same period in 2023.

Population Growth

Dubai is on track with its 2040 plan for population growth, witnessing an increase from 3,661,983 residents at the beginning of Q1 2024 to 3,745,005 by July 12, 2024. This 2.3% growth outpaces the 1.45% increase during the same period in 2023. 
If this growth continues, Dubai's population will surpass 5.5 million by 2040. This influx of residents, coupled with the issuance of 158,000 golden visas and the arrival of 6,700 millionaires in H1 2024, highlights the city's ongoing appeal and the robust demand for real estate.

Dubai's Competitive Property Prices and High Returns

Dubai's property prices remain competitive on the global stage. The average price per square foot in Dubai is $468, significantly lower than in cities like New York ($1,612), London ($1,314), and Hong Kong ($2,000). This affordability, combined with attractive rental yields of 6-8% and a one-year property price appreciation of 18%, makes Dubai a lucrative market for investors. For instance, properties sold off-plan or ready properties have shown substantial returns on equity, with examples of premiums paid and appreciations over short periods.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Despite the rapidly growing population, Dubai's real estate market continues to thrive. In 2023, the property market saw 30% of the residential supply meeting the population growth. Looking ahead, 2024 promises significant progress with 16,733 new units expected to be handed over. These include apartments, villas, townhouses, and commercial properties. Key areas such as  Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) and Arjan are emerging as prime locations for future developments, highlighting the city's continuous expansion and investment opportunities.

Dubai Property Sales Market H1 2024

Off Plan Properties

In 2024, a total of 41,641 off-plan units were registered for initial sale directly from the developer. This consisted of 38,437 apartments, 2,638 townhouses, and 566 villas. The top areas for sales transactions included Jumeirah Village Circle, Mohammed Bin Rashid City (MBR City), Dubai Hills Estate, Arjan, Town Square, and Dubai South. 

There were many off-plan registration resales (before completion), particularly in Business Bay, MBR City, Dubai Creek Harbour, and other emerging areas. 5,743 total units were sold, inclduing 4,419 apartments 1,179 townhouses 145 villas.

Ready Properties

In 2024, the Dubai real estate market saw a significant number of ready property registrations, totaling 24,697 units. This includes:

• 19,072 apartments
• 3,169 townhouses
• 2,453 villas

The top areas for these registrations, listed in order, are:

• Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC)
• Dubai Marina
• International City
• Emirates Living
• Dubai Sports City
• Dubai South

Note that if you are looking to resell an off-plan unit, the highest premiums have been achieved within six months of completion. Note that not all transactions are finalized in 2023, as Oqood Registration can take 3-4 months after signing the reservation form.

Mortgage and Rental Market Trends

The mortgage market has seen a peak in Q2 2024, reflecting a trend where many tenants have switched from leasing to buying post-pandemic. Banks in the UAE are offering mortgages for both residents and non-residents purchasing their first homes. Overall, banks are processing 80% financing for residents purchasing their first home and 60% financing for non-residents buying their first home.

The rental market has experienced accelerated price increases due to high demand and low supply, particularly in townhouses and villas. New tenancy contracts and renewals have surged, with significant increases in rental prices for popular areas like Downtown, Dubai Marina, and Dubai Hills. In the first half of 2024, 92,730 new tenancy contracts were registered, while 149,760 contracts were renewed during the same period.

Commercial Real Estate and Future Outlook

Dubai's commercial real estate market remains competitive, with high demand for office spaces and retail outlets. In H1 2024, 1,481 office transactions were recorded, a 25% increase from the same period in 2023. Key areas to watch include JVC and Arjan. The city's strategic planning and government support continue to make it an attractive destination for global businesses and investors.

Dubai's real estate market in H1 2024 demonstrates sustained growth and unmatched opportunities. With a strategic focus on accommodating the influx of new residents and providing attractive investment returns, Dubai remains a leading global real estate market.

For more information about the real estate market, download Provident’s Property Market Report H1 2024 pdf.